Scott Kirsner Predicts the Future

Yesterday I watched Mike Curtis' video of a Sundance 2007 panel on "Rights Licensing in the New Era of Distribution" which was moderated by Scott Kirsner of Cinematech. Kirsner is also the author of "The Future of Web Video" which details the current and potential landscape of money making possibilities for content creators on the Internet. The book, which I consider an absolute "must read" for indie content creators, is extremely detailed and timely, but it may not, from the onset, appear to paint the picture indies want to see.

There are no pots at the end of the rainbow to be found in the numerous interviews and detailed analyses of video delivery services. While there are, written therein, some success stories such as the "Extreme Diet Coke and Mentos" videos earning as much as $25,000 from pay per click advertising, it should be noted that a television program that could garner as many views as those videos would be worth hundreds of thousands if not exceeding a million dollars. The panel at Sundance, though, shows that much of what is written in the book is already coming true.

One thing that is clear from both the book and the panel is that no one has all the answers. Everyone is still trying to figure out the best methods to help advertisers find their viewers and help reward creators for works that gain large audiences. One thing that was very positive at this panel was that there was considerable focus on the indie. While we may see some large organizations catering only to the Disney's and ABC's of the media world, there are those in power who wish to to truly democratize the content market and let content stand on its own merit. This led me to look at sites like efilmonline.com and metacafe.

Efilm Online is basically like an Ebay for independent film. You could put up a film at whatever level of completion, even as "looking for investment", and buyers surf the market looking for projects. Their front page boasts the sale of a documentary "Rats and Bullies" which has a top bid of $675,000. As a creator, you pay a monthly fee to list your products which will then be on their market available to buyers worldwide.

Metacafe serves videos directly on the web, similar to Youtube, but they share revenue with the creators who sign up for their Producer's Rewards program, which is free. Basically, if you get 20,000 views, you get $100, and from that point you continue to earn $5 for every 1000 views. If you get 2,000,000 views, you earn $10,000. Granted, it's not cable TV, where a show like Stargate has less than a million viewers but charges over $100,000 for a single ad slot, but I can say that there are people on Metacafe who are earning enough to make a living from their work. One of their top producers has earned over $20,000 in the last three months doing quick little massage video clips. There is a video about candles that just want up today that has already earned $338 dollars. Most of the videos seem to be crazy stunts and how-to clips, so can an original animated show do well there? One simply has to try it and find out.

"The Future of Web Video" certainly looks brighter than I originally thought upon my first reading of the book. It's only a matter of time before these different sites, covered in detailed Kirsner's book, figure out the ideal formula. We may find that these sites are just what the digital doctor ordered.